444 Days: Voices of the Iran Hostage Crisis at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs

Forty years have passed since the world was gripped by events in Iran, as revolutionary students seized the United States Embassy and began the longest hostage crisis in history. To mark the 40th anniversary of the Iranian hostage crisis The Chicago Council on Global Affairs convened former US officials who lived through those tense days in Tehran to recount their experiences and reflect on how those events set the tone for the brittle relationship between the US and Iran in the decades since.

Dr. Amir Farmanesh CEO of People Analytics (IranPoll) was the first speaker of the event presenting the latest public opinion polls from Iran. The survey presented was conducted by IranPoll as a joint survey with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. The survey results and reports will be released by the Chicago Council in the coming months.

The event was held on Nov 6, 2019 at the Chicago Council’s conference center at the Prudential Plaza, Chicago. The details are available on Council’s website here.

C-SPAN network covered the event in multiple airings including:

• Nov 29, 2019 | 6:59pm EST

• Nov 30, 2019 | 12:40am EST

• Nov 30, 2019 | 5:00pm EST

• Dec 01, 2019 | 3:00am EST

• Dec 08, 2019 | 9:00am EST

• Dec 23, 2019 | 11:13pm EST

• Dec 24, 2019 | 3:57am EST

• Dec 24, 2019 | 9:32am EST

• Dec 24, 2019 | 2:17pm EST

• Dec 24, 2019 | 7:01pm EST

Dr. Amir Farmanesh presenting at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs

C-SPAN coverage of the event

Amir Farmanesh on the C-SPAN Networks

Amir Farmanesh presents the results of a joint survey between IranPoll and The Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

Iranian Public Opinion Under “Maximum Pressure”

University of Maryland CISSM has published its most recent study based on three consecutive waves of nationally representative surveys that were conducted in Iran by IranPoll for the University of Maryland. University of Maryland CISSM was responsible for designing the questionnaires, getting feedback on them from relevant policy experts and practitioners, performing the analysis, and putting together the final report.

IranPoll partially sponsored the collection of these surveys through “IranPoll Opinion Research Support Fund in Memory of Professor Thomas Schelling”.

Survey results were released on Oct 16, 2019 in the Atlantic Council (Washington DC). The surveys cover a wide range of issues, including Iran’s regional involvements, attitudes toward the JCPOA and its future, and current political and economic state of affairs in Iran.

Telephone interviews of 1,002 Iranians were done April 17 through May 4, 2019. A second wave of interviews with 1,009 Iranians was conducted August 25-29. A third wave with 1,004 Iranians was conducted October 1-8. The margin of error for each wave was +/- 3.1 percent. Surveys were conducted using IranPoll’s standard nationally representative probabilistic sampling as detailed here.

MAIN FINDINGS:

Below please find the results of this survey in greater detail.

• The frequency tables of survey results are available here.

• The presentation of the results by University of Maryland CISSM at the Atlantic Council could be watched here.

• The report written based on the survey results by University of Maryland CISSM is available for download here.

• Charts showing some of the results created by University of Maryland CISSM is available here and below.

MEDIA COVERAGE:

Below are links to the articles covering this poll:

Creation of Iran Consumer Confidence Index (ICCI)

Consumer confidence indices (CCI) provide an indication of future developments of households’ consumption and saving, based upon answers given by general population regarding their expected financial situation, their sentiment about the general economic situation, unemployment and capability of savings.

Such indices are the arithmetic average of the balances (in percentage points) of the answers to the questions on the past and expected financial situation of households, the expected general economic situation and the intentions to make major purchases over the next 12 months.

A high Consumer Confidence Index signals a boost in the consumers’ confidence towards the future economic situation and a low index indicates a pessimistic attitude towards future developments in the economy.

Based on available information, CCI has never been collected in Iran’s history. IranPoll is proud to conduct the first such study in Iran. Out of different methods used for CCI, Harmonised EU Programme is selected for Iran. European Commission Directorate-general for Economic and Financial Affairs conducts the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, set up in 1961, with a sample size of 39,900 consumers monthly surveyed in 27 EU countries.

The sampling methodology utilized by IranPoll is CATI probabilistic sampling (Probability Proportional to Size) with a nationally representative 100% coverage across country including rural areas. A stratified (two strata: region and type of locality) sample with Probability Proportional to Size (PPS) selection of Primary Sampling Unit (PSU) (urban settlements and rural districts) and Secondary Sampling Unit (SSU) (municipal districts in large cities), random selection of household using RDD, and the random table method of selecting respondents within randomly selected households was utilized.

Two waves of Iran Consumer Confidence Index (ICCI) have been collected.

Wave 1:

• n=1,877,

• Collected from Jan. 12 – Feb. 16, 2019.

• AAPOR v4: Response Rate 4=0.617, Cooperation Rate 4=0.820, Refusal Rate 3=0.146, Contact Rate 3=0.832

Wave 2:

• n=1,005,

• Collected from Apr. 17 – May. 4, 2019.

Details of sampling methodology is available here.

MAIN FINDINGS:

Further information on sampling, interviewer training, and QC is available by request. IranPoll has detailed ICCI data available for interested parties. Please contact us at sales@IranPoll.com for further information.

Below please find further information about ICCI in greater detail:

• The description and detailed questions and response options used in fielding ICCI are available here.

• The PowerPoint slides highlighting some elements of ICCI are available here. These slides were originally presented at the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) and World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) annual conference on May 16-21, 2019 at Toronto, Canada by Dr. Amir Farmanesh CEO of People Analytics (IranPoll).