Library of Congress, Gallup, and IranPoll

IranPoll is proud to announce that United States Library of Congress has entered IranPoll’s coverage of Iran’s presidential election into its permanent web archive.

The Library of Congress’s archive of IranPoll could be accessed here: https://www.loc.gov/item/lcwaN0019089

As stated on LOC’s website: “The Library of Congress Web Archive selects, preserves, and provides access to archived web content selected by subject experts from across the Library, so that it will be available for researchers today and in the future.”

The webpage immortalized by the Library of Congress, was about IranPoll’s coverage of 2017 Iranian presidential election. IranPoll’s prediction from 3 days before the election was published by The Economist 20 hours before the initial official results were declared and was a fully accurate prediction of the outcome.

“IranPoll series has become one of the best snapshots of public opinion in Iran over recent years, with its polling predictions for the May 2017 presidential elections accurate within less than 2 percentage points.”

— The Washington Post, Feb 2, 2018

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IranPoll is also proud to announce that it is the winner of Gallup’s 2018 award for Quality.

“We are truly honored for this remarkable recognition and thank all of our clients for holding us to such a high standard.”

— Dr. Amir Farmanesh, Chairman and CEO of People Analytics (IranPoll), Mar 4, 2019

State of Iran Survey Series (Dec 2018 wave)

As almost one year has passed since President Trump’s decision on abrogating the Iran nuclear deal, we would like to attract your attention to IranPoll’s new wave in the “State of Iran” survey series conducted among a representative sample of Iranians on December 2018. The “State of Iran” survey series is designed to track the trends regarding Iranian people’s attitudes toward the foreign policy, nuclear deal, and Iran’s state of economy.

The survey shows that while vast majority of Iranians continue saying that Iran’s economy is bad and that it is getting worse, there are slight signs of improvements in the trend (Q1-2 and Slides 7-8). Keeping up with the previous trend, increasing majority say that the nuclear deal has not yet been able to improve the living condition of ordinary Iranians (Q6 and Slide 14). In addition, Iranians are becoming less confident that other P5+1 countries will live by the terms of the JCPOA (Q9 and Slide 10). They also blame European countries for moving too slow to meet their obligations under JCPOA (Q10-11 and Slides 11-12).

Meantime JCPOA’s popularity decline has finally plateaued in its all-time-low, and a stable majority of Iranians support it even after knowing what in reality it can offer (Q5 and Slide 16). Even under the pressure of looming conflict with West, majority of Iranians keep believing that it is possible to find common ground for peaceful coexistence with West (Q24 and Slide 18). This optimistic view towards possibility for peace, has been a stable trend over years of IranPoll’s opinion polling in Iran.

For Dec 2018 wave, telephone interviews of 1,017 Iranians were done on December 4–12, 2018. The margin of error was +/- 3.1%. It was a nationally representative survey using our standard probabilistic sampling as detailed here.

MAIN FINDINGS:

Below please find the results of this survey in greater detail.

• The frequency tables of survey results are available here.

• The PowerPoint slides highlighting some of the survey results based on a presentation made by Dr. Amir Farmanesh CEO of People Analytics (IranPoll) are available here.

MEDIA COVERAGE:

Below are links to the articles covering this poll:

Iran Social Survey (ISS)

From November 6 to December 29, 2016, IranPoll conducted a nationally representative survey with a sample size of 5,005 for Princeton University using our standard probabilistic sampling as detailed here. The results of this survey are published here, and the full PDF report is also available here.

The data were collected as a part of Iran Social Survey (ISS). IranPoll interviewers for ISS project asked respondents about civil society participation, household usage of state social services, self-identification across ethnic or language groups, and family demographics including parents and grandparents’ occupational histories.

The scholars from Princeton University and University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) who were in charge of this study conducted a number of quality controls on the data collected for them by IranPoll. They concluded in their final report (page 24):

“Recent technological advances have afforded social scientists new opportunities to monitor the design and implementation of survey questions, participate in fieldwork, and improve various quality control mechanisms, such as listening to a sample of recorded interviews. […]

Importantly, self-reported demographic and turnout data, as described above, match figures found in the Iranian census and released by the Ministry of Interior. Falsification techniques, such as calculating the percentage of matching interviews, were applied to the data as an additional check after the survey data was initially collected.”

On Feb 4, 2018, one of the scholars in charge of the project from Princeton University published further details about the quality control techniques they utilized to test IranPoll data on his Twitter account available here. The scholar concluded:

“We took advantage of existing techniques to ensure we could trust the data: for example, we listened to a random sample of anonymized interviews to gauge the comfort level of respondents. We tested different terms to ensure the reliable measurement of important concepts. […]

We used this technique (percentMatch) after we conducted our own survey with @IranPoll. Here is what we found: a normal distribution, zero interviews with a maximum percent match of 85%, 45 interviews (<1%) with a maximum percent match over 80%.”

IranPoll is proud that our collected data satisfied the scientific standards and quality control techniques conducted by these scholars.

Below are three images from the report and the result of the “percentMatch” technique as published on Twitter (mentioned above):