VoxNations' Prediction of Iran's 2024 Presidential Election: Toss-Up

Iran’s fourteenth presidential election first round was held on 28 June 2024. Its second round was held on 5 July 2024 and VoxNations has made its prediction of the presidential results exclusively available to Newsweek. Newsweek covered our predictions in a feature exclusive article published on Jul 05, 2024, at 3:00 PM EDT.

Our predictions are based on the responses given by the ‘likely voters’ to the question: “Who will you be voting for in the upcoming presidential election?” The predictions were from five waves of telephone surveys conducted by VoxNations, an independent Toronto-based polling organization, among a nationally representative probability sample of about 800 Iranians over the age of 18 from 30 June 2024 to 4 July 2024. The margin of sampling error was +/-3.5%. Sampling and methodology details are available here.

In the tight race between Jalili and Pezeshkian, neither candidate has been able to become the front runner, and everything hangs on whether Pezeshkian will be able to successfully implement his get-out-the-vote campaign on the day of the election.

This is the tightest presidential election the Islamic Republic has ever experienced. In this election, candidates' standing is significantly linked with turnout, and if the turnout changes on the day of the election, the candidates' votes might change as well. If either candidate's last-hour efforts to get out the vote prove more successful than the other, we could see results becoming more favorable towards the more successful campaign.