IranPoll Iranian Voter-Turnout Model

IranPoll has thoroughly investigated voter turnout in previous Iranian elections and has developed a model that has very accurately predicted past Iranian presidential elections. This model is based on 5 questions:

1. The respondents’ self-reported probability to vote (the question below)

2. The respondents’ self-reported probability of changing his/or mind about voting before the election

3. The respondents’ history of voting in previous elections

4. The degree of importance the respondents attribute to the upcoming election

5. The degree of impact on the outcome the respondents attribute to the votes of people like them

This exclusive IranPoll Iranian Voter-Turnout Model, which has proven predictive in past Iranian presidential elections, continuously predicts the turnout rate if a presidential election where to be held at that date. Obviously, as we get closer to the election, the prediction will become more and more accurate.

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A lot has been made about UMD-IranPoll Feb. 2021 survey’s question regarding the respondent’s likelihood of voting in the upcoming Iranian presidential election in June 2021 (Q60).

What is important to be said here is that values produced by such a question can only tell us about the attitudes of the respondents toward participation and cannot by itself tell us what the actual participation rate is going to be. This is not unique to elections in Iran and the fact that such direct questions about participation generally produce inflated numbers is a well-known phenomenon with which pollsters are well familiar.

For more on this issue, you may read:

• Can Likely Voter Models Be Improved? Evidence from the 2014 U.S. House elections, By Scott Keeter and Ruth Igielnik, Pew Research Center https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2016/01/07/measuring-the-likelihood-to-vote/

• Rogers, Todd. 2012. Why Bother Asking? The Limited Value of Self-Reported Vote Intention. HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP12-001, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/7779639

• Jackman, Simon; Spahn, Bradley. Why Does the American National Election Study Overestimate Voter Turnout? Political Analysis; Oxford Vol. 27, Iss. 2, (Apr 2019): 193-207. DOI:10.1017/pan.2018.36

• Dahlgaard, J., Hansen, J., Hansen, K., & Bhatti, Y. (2019). Bias in Self-reported Voting and How it Distorts Turnout Models: Disentangling Nonresponse Bias and Overreporting Among Danish Voters. Political Analysis, 27(4), 590-598. doi:10.1017/pan.2019.9

Iranians and Americans Support A Mutual Return to JCPOA

Second joint Chicago Council on Global Affairs (CCGA) and IranPoll survey results show that although Iranian and American public support for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, or the Iran deal) has waned over time, there is still sizable backing for it in both countries. The results suggest there is an opportunity for the United States to rebuild some credibility with the Iranian public if it returns to the agreement. But there may be significant resistance in Iran, even from the public, to negotiations about Iran’s missile program or other nonnuclear activities.

The Iranian part of the study was conducted as a part of IranPoll’s ‘State of Iran Survey Series’ utilizing our standard nationally representative sampling from February 8 to 28, 2021 through telephone interviews from 1,006 Iranians. The sampling margin of error was +/- 3.09%. The US part of the study was conducted January 29–February 1, 2021, by Ipsos using its large-scale nationwide online research panel, KnowledgePanel, among a weighted national sample of 1,021 people 18 or older, living in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

IranPoll partially sponsored the collection of these surveys through “IranPoll Opinion Research Support Fund in Memory of Professor Thomas Schelling”.

The findings of the study show

• About six in ten Americans favor US participation in a nuclear deal with Iran and half of Iranians (51%) approve of the JCPOA. This is the highest percentage of Iranians supporting the JCPOA since May 2019 though much lower than levels of support in 2016–2017, before the United States withdrew from the accord in 2018.

• Seven in ten Iranians (69%) support their country returning to the limits called for under the nuclear agreement if the United States begins fulfilling its obligations under the JCPOA.

• Even if the United States does return to the Iran agreement, a majority in Iran think it is unlikely the United States will live up to its obligations under the agreement (60%, versus 37% who think it is likely).

• Half of Iranians think it is at least somewhat likely that the economic sanctions against their country will be eased during the Biden administration (50% likely, 45% unlikely). Even so, a majority expect no change in US-Iran relations during the Biden presidency (57%).

• Only 28 percent say that if the two sides return to the original terms of the JCPOA, Iran should be willing to negotiate a separate agreement about its missile program.

Detail results:

Below please find the results of this survey in greater detail:

• A series of reports jointly written by Dina Smeltz - Senior Fellow at the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy program of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs -, Amir Farmanesh - CEO of People Analytics (IranPoll) -, and Brendan Helm of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs on the results of the surveys has been published by the Chicago Council and is available below:

  • Iranians and Americans Support A Mutual Return to JCPOA

  • Disappointed in Rouhani, Iranians Seek a Different Sort of Leader in June Elections

  • Iranians Consider China Even More Important Than Regional Allies

• The frequency tables of the survey results conducted in Iran are available here.

• The results of the survey conducted in the United States (joint toplines) are available here.

• The results of the first joint CCGA/IranPoll survey are available here.

• Craig Kafura in CCGA’s “Running Numbers” has covered the COVID-19 related aspects of the poll available here.

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MEDIA COVERAGE:

Below are links to the articles covering this poll:

Iranian public opinion in the Biden era

University of Maryland CISSM has conducted its most recent study based on two consecutive waves of nationally representative surveys that were conducted in Iran by IranPoll for the University of Maryland. University of Maryland CISSM was responsible for designing the questionnaires, getting feedback on them from relevant policy experts and practitioners, performing the analysis, and putting together the final report.

IranPoll partially sponsored the collection of these surveys through “IranPoll Opinion Research Support Fund in Memory of Professor Thomas Schelling”.

Survey results were released on Feb 24, 2021 at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council (Washington DC). The surveys cover a wide range of issues, including the impact of the pandemic, Iran’s regional involvements, attitudes toward the JCPOA and its future, and current political and economic state of affairs in Iran.

The study is based on two probability sample nationally representative telephone surveys. The fieldwork for first wave was conducted in October 2020 (Sept. 1 – Oct. 2, 2020) and the second wave in February 2021 (Jan. 26 – Feb. 6, 2021), among a representative sample of about 1000 Iranians per each wave. The margin of error for both surveys is about +/- 3.1%. The AAPOR2 contact rate of the October 2020 survey was 76%. The AAPOR2 cooperation rate of the survey was 81%. The overall response rate of the survey based on AAPOR2 was 60%. The AAPOR2 contact rate of the February 2021 survey was 83%. The AAPOR2 cooperation rate of the survey was 82%. The overall response rate of the survey based on AAPOR2 was 64%. Surveys were conducted using IranPoll’s standard nationally representative probabilistic sampling as detailed here.

MAIN FINDINGS:

Below please find the results of this survey in greater detail:

• The frequency tables of survey results.

• The presentation of the results by University of Maryland CISSM at the Atlantic Council could be watched here.

• The report written based on the survey results by University of Maryland CISSM.

• Charts showing some of the results created by University of Maryland CISSM are available below.

MEDIA COVERAGE:

Below are links to the articles covering this poll: